Grafton Capital Advisory

The next 13 weeks, in cash.

A rolling cash forecast follows receipts and payments week by week. It helps a finance team see when the expected bank balance becomes tight, even when the monthly accounts show a profit.

Start with money the business can use.

The opening position comes from bank balances reconciled to the forecast start date. Restricted cash is identified separately. An undrawn facility appears as a source of borrowing only when its availability and conditions are understood.

We then build receipts from outstanding invoices, expected customer payment behavior and other identifiable cash sources. A sales target belongs in the sales plan; its cash effect needs an invoice, collection assumption or other basis.

Put each commitment in its payment week.

Payroll, rent, taxes, supplier payments, borrowing costs and planned capital spending have different schedules. The forecast places each amount where cash is expected to leave the account. Accounting accruals and depreciation do not become cash payments merely because they appear in the income statement.

Large uncertain items are shown separately. If a customer disputes an invoice or a supplier requires a deposit, the forecast should reveal how that changes the balance before the next routine update.

Keep the old forecast long enough to learn from it.

At each update, completed weeks are reconciled to bank movements. The remaining weeks are revised, and a new week is added at the far end. Retaining the prior version makes it possible to explain the differences.

A receipt that arrived late needs a different correction from a sale that never occurred. One moves the collection date; the other changes the expected cash amount. Repeated differences can point to a collection assumption that needs replacing.

  • Reconcile opening cash and actual weekly movements.
  • Revise outstanding receipts and committed payment dates.
  • Show material changes from the previous forecast.
  • Extend the schedule back to 13 future weeks.

A working forecast, with its assumptions attached.

The work can include a weekly cash schedule, an assumptions list and a reconciliation of forecast to actual cash. The finance team can use these together when deciding which payments need discussion or whether a funding requirement is approaching.

The horizon and level of detail depend on the assignment. A 13-week forecast supports short-term planning; seasonal purchasing or a longer borrowing term may require a separate monthly view.